Europe

Special Report

The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?

3 years ago

Europe Global

Essentials

Hawkish ECB: How Much Longer?

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling that further rate hikes are likely in…

3 years ago

Essentials

UK Gilts Sell Off Amid Stubborn Inflation

UK gilts have sold off sharply over the past month, particularly at the short end of the yield curve. The two-year yield has risen by over 100bps since mid-May, while 10-year yields have increased by just over 70bps – causing the 2-year/10-year yield curve to…

3 years ago

Essentials

Get Ready For Another Ukraine Aftershock

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, geopolitical risk will rise before the Ukraine war is resolved, punishing eastern European emerging market assets on a relative basis. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is under way. The new campaign will…

3 years ago

Essentials

Weak Sentiment Underscores Languishing Eurozone Economy

The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that the pessimists continue to outnumber…

3 years ago

Essentials

AI Spending Will Benefit Dutch Tech

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Dutch market will be the main European beneficiary of expanding spending on AI. The crucial factor constraining the deployment and expansion of AI is its voracious appetite for computing…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

AI and Europe

The AI revolution is having a large impact on many US stocks but European equities have not enjoyed the same benefits. Is Europe really devoid of AI plays?

3 years ago

Europe

Essentials

Eurozone Succumbs To A Technical Recession

The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…

3 years ago

Essentials

Still Too Early To Take Equity Risk

Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary policy in 2022, the S&P 500 was…

3 years ago

FICC

Manufacturing PMIs, The Real Economy, And Commodities

Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to the green energy transition will upend enmeshed global supply chains, which will also impact manufacturing activity. It is possible that stimulus in China will arrest the decline in the state’s manufacturing activity, which will have positive spillover effects to its key trading partners.

3 years ago

Commodities China

Europe

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