Europe

Monthly Portfolio Update: Is The Fed Right To Declare Mission Accomplished?

Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.

1 year ago

Essentials

Eurozone CPI At 3-Year Low Paves Way For September Cut

After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively. Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2%…

1 year ago

Essentials

Sweden Will Cut The Gordian Knot

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…

1 year ago

Essentials

Carbon Credit Prices: The Correction Has Just Begun

European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…

1 year ago

Essentials

Ifo Expectations Augur Poorly For Eurozone Economy

Sentiment among German companies declined in August from 87.0 to 86.6. Current conditions shed 0.6 points to 86.5 while the expectations component ticked 0.2 points lower. It nevertheless exceeded consensus expectations for a larger decline. Deteriorating…

1 year ago

CoreMacro

Sweden Will Cut The Gordian Knot

Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?

1 year ago

Europe

FICC

Lessons From Past Global Tightening Cycles

Special Report

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.

1 year ago

Bonds

Essentials

The DM Manufacturing/Services Divergence Continues

Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions unexpectedly accelerated in the…

1 year ago

Essentials

On The UK’s Economic Outperformance

UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have fallen nearly 200 bps since June…

1 year ago

Essentials

Sound Household Balance Sheets Won’t Save The Eurozone

We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will constrain spending in an economy where…

1 year ago

Europe

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