Euro Area

ZEW Points To A German Recovery But Headwinds Persist

The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts for the US economy, they have…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Germany’s Travails Continue

Special Report

The German economy has lagged that of Europe. This trend will continue, but does it mean German equities will underperform further?

2 years ago

Essentials

Large-Scale Orders Drive Surge In German Factory Orders

German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This translated to a 2.7% y/y rise,…

2 years ago

Essentials

Market Crossroads: Euro Area Small And Large-Caps

Euro area small-cap stocks are attractively valued compared to their large-cap counterparts. They have underperformed by 20% since April 2022, but small caps’ earnings have kept pace with those of large-cap firms. Hence, valuation indicators, including…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

European Central Bank Monitor Update

Our Central Bank Monitors support European central bankers’ decision to hold rates steady. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

2 years ago

FICC

GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

2 years ago

Essentials

Is German Consumer Sentiment Relapsing?

Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of households, boosting their morale…

2 years ago

Essentials

Setting The Stage For A Q2 ECB Rate Cut

Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that it is still premature to…

2 years ago

Essentials

Germany's IFO Serves As A Warning

Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this deterioration in sentiment among…

2 years ago

Euro Area

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