Economy
The November Tokyo CPI beat expectations, with headline inflation accelerating to 2.6% y/y from 1.8%. The core (ex. fresh food) and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) measures also reaccelerated to 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The Tokyo CPI provides…
European monetary data printed in line with expectations in October, with M3 growing 3.4% y/y vs. 3.2% in September. Growth in private sector lending was unchanged at 1.2% y/y despite the recent easing in lending standards. We expect the credit impulse to…
This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.
Investors focused on the flurry of cabinet nominations in the aftermath of the US election, but the US does not have a monopoly on political drama. France is going through turmoil of its own. This summer’s snap election left France’s government weakened,…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future situation drove the increase. The…
President-elect Trump jolted markets Monday night by declaring that tariffs will be implemented on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The US dollar strengthened while stocks fell, as did Treasury yields. Equities, however, recovered on Tuesday, as a…
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings calls as pandemic-era savings fade, and…
We used last Friday’s BCA Live & Unfiltered Meeting to assess our views on the US dollar after its recent bull run. While technical indicators may show short-term exhaustion, and Scott Bessent’s nomination for Treasury Secretary put a lid on recent dollar…