Economic Growth
S&P 500 operating margins have been in a downdraft for nearly two years – but the consensus is still penciling in expansion for 2024. How likely is that? Our US Equity Strategy colleagues have addressed this question in their recent “Marginally Better or…
This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front, there is the Friday Jobs report which…
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth came in at 16.8% y/y in December following…
With the latest PCE release confirming that the disinflation process is intact (see The Numbers), a key question facing investors is around the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Indeed, the US inflation surprise index has collapsed from its mid-2021…
While balance of payments (BoP) do not really matter for day-to-day FX considerations, they do matter over the long term. According to BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists, at high levels of US dollar valuation like today, the current account balance tends to…
The Q4 2023 US GDP print delivered a positive message on economic conditions. Although real GDP growth decelerated from 4.9% to 3.3%, it came in well above consensus expectations of 2.0% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 2.4%. Consumers once again…
Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that it is still premature to…
Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.
Flash PMIs sent a generally positive update on economic activity across major DM economies in January – particularly in the case of manufacturing. In the US, the composite index rose to a 7-month high of 52.3, beating expectations it would remain broadly…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept rates steady at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, leaving its policy rate at 5%. The central bank presented updated economic projections in a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which were little changed from the last MPR in…