Business Cycles
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Importantly, the USD weakness was…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the structural landscape of China's property market today is, in many aspects, more challenging than the real estate markets in Japan and the US at the peak of their housing bubbles: The…
Friday’s Eurozone CPI inflation report was in line with consensus estimates. Headline inflation reaccelerated from 2.4%y/y to 2.9%y/y in December, in part reflecting the impact of the end of energy subsidies in Germany and France. The pace of energy deflation…
After rallying by 11.2% between October 5 and December 27, the price of copper has since been on a losing streak, falling in each of the subsequent six trading sessions. Notably, this decline has coincided with weakness among some other pro-cyclical financial…
The dollar has kicked off 2024 on a tear. The closely followed DXY index bottomed on Thursday December 28th, and has since risen almost 2%. Year-to-date, the only major currency that has held up against the dollar is the Mexican peso, with the yen continuing…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the risk of a second inflation wave has gone up. Until last December’s FOMC meeting, the team’s bias was to think that the Fed would cut rates too slowly. While the release of the Fed minutes…
At first blush, the US establishment survey delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The increase in US nonfarm payroll employment jumped from 173 thousand to 216 thousand in December – beating expectations of 175 thousand. Wage growth also surprised to the…
China’s Caixin PMI delivered a positive signal on Thursday. The Services index climbed from 51.5 to 52.9 in December, beating expectations it would remain more or less unchanged. The improvement in the Services PMI lifted the Composite index by 1 point to a…
Results of the November JOLTS survey indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings slowed from 8.85 million to 8.79 million – the lowest since March 2021 and slightly below expectations of 8.82 million. This brings the ratio of…
Minutes from the Fed’s December 12-13 FOMC meeting suggest that policymakers are more confident that inflation is on track to return to target. While they continued to note that inflation remains elevated and that they are highly attentive to inflation risks,…