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BCA Indicators/Model

The US Jobs Report, And What Will Trigger The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…
Daily Insights
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Key Views: Geopolitics In 2024

Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership. Overweight government bonds, defensive sectors, the Americas versus other regions, aerospace/defense stocks, and cyber-security stocks.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
Global Equity Breadth Rolls Off Its Peak
It’s no secret that a handful of mega caps have been driving markets in 2023, masking a somewhat lackluster year for equities. In fact, on an equal-weighted basis, markets gave up nearly all their YTD gains by the end of October. However, the latest rally has…
Daily Insights
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How Would A Recession Impact 2024 Oil Prices?

In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to ~ $78/bbl in 2H24. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain oil and commodity exposures.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
US Beige Book: Slowing Economic Activity
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a pessimistic message for the US economy. Half of the 12 districts reported slight declines in activity, two indicated that “conditions were flat to slightly down,” and the remaining four experienced modest growth.  …
Daily Insights
Return Of The Bulls
After a sharp rally since late-October, the S&P 500 is now on the verge of breaking above its late July year-to-date high and completely erasing the losses incurred over the prior three months. Investor sentiment has also rebounded sharply and is once…
Daily Insights
Stay Long Bond Duration
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this constructive situation, including…
Daily Insights
In Europe, The Magic Eight Dominate
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Magic Eight are the European counterpart to the US’ Magnificent Seven. The dominance of the so-called Magnificent Seven in the US S&P 500 is well-documented. Europe has its own…
Daily Insights
Cocoa's Near-Parabolic Rally Is Vulnerable To Reversal
The spectacular rally in the cocoa price has taken it to its highest level in 44 years. The proximate cause is lower crop yields in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, the world’s two largest cocoa producers. Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and a…
Daily Insights
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A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule
Special Report

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper

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