Latest from BCA Research

One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper funding than a lack of ambition. Our overall assessment remains positive, given the EU is adopting many of the priorities from Draghi’s report.

Special Report

In this report, penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examine a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. GIS will be using a mixture of these strategies for its new PowerTrades service.

Germany is moving forward with implementing the large fiscal and defence spending announced earlier this year. Fiscal reforms are also positive, though they will fall short of expectations.

US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks, while still retaining a modest equity underweight over a 12-month horizon.

According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond yields and the risk of stagflation, while relatively few clients anticipate a recession. In terms of portfolio positioning, an overweight in Technology received the strongest endorsement.

Special Report

In this report penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examines a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. We incorporate many of these factors into our own model. Our colleagues found that while most of these factors have waned over time, they generally remain profitable, especially for small caps.

The Fed is mispriced for the rest of 2025. We explain why the dollar is poised to rebound and the trades to position for it.

Special Report

We test a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. While most have waned over time, they generally remain profitable, especially for small caps. We will be using a mixture of these strategies for our new PowerTrades service.

The Fed’s actions tell us that it has chosen to avoid a recession at the cost of moving its inflation goalposts to 3 percent. Thus begins the slippery slope to price instability. Long-term investors should underweight the dollar, own some gold, but better than gold is bitcoin. Plus, a new tactical trade is short GOOGL vs. SPY.

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.