Latest from BCA Research

Strong results and constructive commentary from the US’s largest banks are encouraging: Consumers remain in solid shape, and the macro backdrop continues to favor equities. The outlook for the largest banks is positive, and they are unlikely to be affected by isolated credit events.

Speculative froth has built up across all precious metals, yet gold’s structural tailwinds will allow it to weather corrections better than its peers.

In global markets, speculative forces have intertwined with the sound fundamentals of specific equity segments, perplexing investors. This report aims to distinguish between excessive price run-ups and healthy fundamentals.

Special Report

With Sino-US tensions flaring up again, will Chinese manufacturers accelerate their overseas capacity shift? In this Special Report we examine China’s manufacturing offshoring through multiple lenses and tackle the key questions shaping its next phase.

This week, our screeners explore ways to play a long-term bullish metals view, sub-sector REITS opportunities as well as Japanese Value stocks.

Special Report

In this report we examine how a variety of momentum strategies perform for different assets using moving average rules ranging from 1 day to 200 days. We find that mean-reversion strategies work best for equities and bonds, while trend-following strategies work best for commodities and, to a lesser extent, currencies.

Silver’s short squeeze and stretched technicals warn of a potential tactical pullback.

Special Report

This week’s Special Report evaluates the reward and risk in corporate bonds. We address the question of whether low expected excess returns today are justified by low risk or an example of overvaluation.

The Fed is undergoing a regime-change in which the primacy of price stability is displaced by the primacy of ultra-low real rates. This will structurally underpin real assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and stocks.

The denizens of GeoMacro strategy have remained bullish into October, despite our gut telling us that the equity rally has overextended itself on a technical basis. On cue, markets ripped our face off with a single missive from the Twitterer-in-Chief. While we scoff at the idea that the President will raise tariffs on China by 100%, the speed of the unwind of the "everything trade" that Friday suggests that market dynamics are not great.