GeoMacro

With 88 days to go until the U.S. presidential election our client meetings are starting to steer towards "all Trump, all the time." In this report we present evidence that Trump's electability is correlated with the chief global safe haven, the 10-year Treasury. Markets may be overreacting, however. Trump has a chance, but Clinton is the clear favorite. We also bust five myths about China's political system, in a continuation of our coverage of rising geopolitical risks in East Asia.

Special Report

This week's Special Report written by Geopolitical Strategy's Managing Editor Marko Papic discusses the "bull market" in terrorism and the limited impact on risk assets from terrorist attacks. The rise in attacks will not necessarily lead to anti-establishment politicians taking power.

Special Report

Special Report

Special Report

Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy reviews prospects for "Bremorse," latest in the U.S. election, Italian political crisis, tensions in South China Sea, and the long-term future of Europe.

Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy reviews prospects for "Bremorse," latest in the U.S. election, Italian political crisis, tensions in South China Sea, and the long-term future of Europe.

Special Report

The only certainty regarding the next steps in the Brexit Saga is uncertainty. In the attached report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy presents the BREXIT Decision Tree and reviews the possible next steps. We also collate all of the BCA investment views and strategies - tactical and strategic - that relate to the ongoing saga.

Special Report

The Russo-Chinese relationship got a diplomatic boost this week, but can China provide Russia with the capital it needs to boost productivity meaningfully?

Special Report

Special Report

The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the largest swath of voters. The median voter in the Anglo-Saxon world is shifting to the left, and regardless of what happens in the Brexit referendum or the U.S. election, this shift will be the most consequential development for markets.