In this report, we follow up on the Roundtable that we hosted on September 11. We summarize the results of the client polls and answer a few questions on top of investors’ minds....
The Draghi report highlights sensible reforms that would address many of Europe’s productivity shortcomings. Whether European capitals heed Mario Draghi’s advices remains to be seen....
Unlike public markets, performance in private markets is complex and multifaceted. In this report we present multiple metrics across time and sources, offering investors a comprehensive range of benchmarks to assess their relative performance. Differences across sources will surprise....
One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recession. A risk-on mood dominated markets on Thursday, with the S&P 500 breaching new all-time highs while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.5 basis points (see Indicator Spotlight). T...
In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress...
Initial rate cuts are not statistically significant for Equity Analyzer’s factors, though we still note Value and Safety as top performers. Sectors are the same. Defensives spike but lose traction as Cyclicals come into favor later. If a hard landing materializes as we expect, equities will move low...
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran. Iran is still highly likely to retaliate against Israel. The Biden administ...
Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. A Republican single-party sweep offers...
