This Special Report examines the post-pandemic evolution of consumption growth, relative equity sector and subindustry performance and recent commentary from consumer-facing companies to assess the likelihood that softer spending among lower-income households will spread to middle- and upper-income ...
Conservative investors usually shy away from very volatile assets. But is this the right approach? By comparing Bitcoin with a hypothetical asset called “Boringcoin” we show that, all else being equal, high volatility assets are preferable as diversifiers due to better capital efficiency. Asset allo...
A bearish chill has engulfed oil markets. Earlier this week, Brent dropped to a near three-year low, falling below the trading range that had prevailed over the prior 18 months. In this Strategy Insight we detail why we do not believe that the worst has passed for oil markets. Rather, prices are lik...
The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession....
As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications account for roughly half of silver demand. The...
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that...
By triggering a renewed surge in the yen, and a disorderly unwinding of the AI bubble, more aggressive rate cutting would guarantee the very recession that the Fed is trying to stave off. This means that underweight short-term US rates or T-bonds combined with underweight US tech is a winning positi...
