Two days ago, I flagged how the number of people in the US who are working part time but would rather be working full time is rising, which usually only happens in the early stages of recessions....
As we head into a more turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical period, investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally, they should also be in a stable region, and not so dependent on the US or China. Hence, we are in...
We believe the PBoC’s recent policy stimulus might bolster investor confidence, potentially stabilize onshore Chinese equity prices, and provide modest support to offshore stocks. However, they are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth in the mainland....
The S&P Global flash PMIs released yesterday showed that the contraction in manufacturing activity accelerated on both sides of the Atlantic in September. The forward-looking new orders component fell to a 9-month low of 42.3 in the euro area and a 21-month low of 42.7 in the US....
The September Euro Area Flash PMI release confirms that the region's economic outlook is deteriorating. Manufacturing activity is now fully contracting, and the new orders-to-inventory ratio is deteriorating anew. Services activity is losing some of its shine, especially in France, now that the Olym...
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised interest rates last week. Is this the commencement of a major tightening cycle that will persist well into next year? Despite this move, we maintain that the BCB will cut interest rates substantially next year. We believe the Lula-nominated board members are p...
The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate. Our China Investment ...
Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September. Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued to expand in most regions, though the pace o...
