Back in 2022, when Jamie Dimon was predicting an economic hurricane, I was one of the few strategists reassuring clients that the US was not at imminent risk of a recession....
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we reco...
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one other state. Neither the Fed nor China’s stimulus should reduce one’...
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add som...
The adrenaline from the recent policy stimulus might be sufficient to produce a window of outperformance for Chinese equities and China-plays in financial markets. However, this adrenaline will not extend to China's real economy. Net-net, we are upgrading the allocation to EM in a global equity port...
The adrenaline from the recent policy stimulus might be sufficient to produce a window of outperformance for Chinese equities and China-plays in financial markets. However, this adrenaline will not extend to China's real economy. Net-net, we are upgrading the allocation to EM in a global equity port...
