In Section I, we explain how recent positive data surprises are connected to expectations of Fed easing, meaning that they are self-limiting. Yields will rise even further if US economic data continue to surprise to the upside, which will put the US back on a recessionary path. A Republican sweep ha...
Trump may be favored, but Harris is now underrated. The Senate is highly likely to go Republican – Harris would be gridlocked if she pulled off a victory. If Trump wins it will be a full sweep. Expect volatility in the short term....
We prefer Non-Core Infrastructure and Venture Capital over Buyouts and Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds. We are now overweight Core/+ Real Estate. Investors need to recheck the bank regulation tailwind for their long-term assumptions on Private Credit....
Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?...
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar....
Back in 2016, there was widespread concern that if Donald Trump became president, he would start a trade war. As it turned out, Trump did become president and he did start a trade war, but the US economy continued growing anyway. In a study published in August 2019, the Congressional Budget Office c...
