Developed Countries

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

2 years ago

Essentials

NFIB Confidence Deteriorates, Wages Expected Higher

The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent of…

2 years ago

Essentials

Southern and Northern Europe: Role Reversal

Italy and Spain have a poor reputation when it comes to their economies. The European debt crisis affected them more than other Euro Area countries. Their housing markets collapsed and debt cost soared. France and Germany, while also affected, were the bright…

2 years ago

Essentials

Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance

Some of the biggest US banks will kick off the reporting season in earnest this Friday, leading increased market focus on Q1 2024 earnings. According to Factset, analysts expect S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth to expand for the third straight quarter…

2 years ago

Essentials

Minimum Volatility Equities

Investors typically associate high-flying tech stocks with high sensitivity to interest rates. The rationale is simple: Given that most of their cashflows are further into the future, their value will be more sensitive to changes in their discounter. And yet,…

2 years ago

Equities

Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

2 years ago

Essentials

German Industrial Production Growth Reaches 13-Month High

German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Message From US Inflation Expectations

The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…

2 years ago

Essentials

No Recession Signal From The Labor Market

According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, until labor market cracks emerge, the path of least resistance for bond yields is probably higher, but the potential near-term upside in yields is limited. The team is monitoring three indicators that will…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Listening To Europe’s Credit Impulse

Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?

2 years ago

Developed Countries

Related Topics