Consumer

The Big Bank Beige Book, October 2023

The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing around the banking system, though consumption has clearly slowed. We reiterate our view that a recession is coming, but not before the year is out.

2 years ago

CoreMacroFICC

2024: The Year Of The Yen

There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.

2 years ago

Global Currencies China

Essentials

Recession Indicators Are Still Sending A Warning

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index's 0.7% m/m decline in September sent a weaker-than-anticipated signal about the outlook for the US economy. It fell below anticipations that the pace of decline would remain unchanged at -0.4% m/m and marks the…

2 years ago

Essentials

US Beige Book: Stable Or Slightly Weaker Growth Outlook

Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4% for Q3 – well above estimates of…

2 years ago

Essentials

Resilient US Retail Sales Growth In September

The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The details of the report were also…

2 years ago

Essentials

ZEW: Better Days Ahead?

The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase in the share of respondents…

2 years ago

Essentials

Restrictive Financial Conditions: A Drag On Growth

US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…

2 years ago

Essentials

Chinese Credit: Less Than Meets The Eye

On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and expectations of CNY 3.7 trillion. However,…

2 years ago

Essentials

US Consumer Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Jump, Weighing On Sentiment

The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Chinese Automakers: Surging Exports, Mediocre Domestic Sales

Special Report

Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones.

2 years ago

China

Consumer

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