Essentials

Bank Credit Analyst

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.

Bank Credit Analyst

Long-time subscriber Mr. X recently visited our office to discuss three issues: Brexit, the outlook for China and the seeming contraction between the performance of equity and bond markets. This Special Report is a transcript of our conversation and, not surprisingly, the broad conclusions supported a cautious investment strategy.

Bank Credit Analyst

We view the "sweet spot" for market-balancing oil prices to be within a range of $50-$65/ barrel: Oil prices will be below/in the lower half of this range during 2016H2 and will average in the upper half of this range in 2017, perhaps exceeding the range in 2018. Without OPEC serving as an attentive "human regulator" of production, bouts of oversupply and undersupply will have to be managed through the drill bit (not the output valve), leading to increased price volatility beyond our "sweet spot" range. In this environment, quick-reacting U.S. shale producers and service companies are best positioned to benefit early in the up-cycle.

Special Report

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

Bank Credit Analyst

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

Bank Credit Analyst

If the U.K. ultimately exits the EU, it will be a major break in the 70 years of European integration. Multipolarity will be reinforced, increasing global geopolitical risk. We expect global risk assets to start taking cues from Europe, not the Fed and China. However, risks of N-Exit - that other EU member states follow suit - may be overstated.

Bank Credit Analyst

This fact sheet outlines what you need to know ahead of the U.K.'s referendum on EU membership. The "Leave" camp has taken the lead, and while the polls likely overstate its position, the status quo faces serious risks.

Bank Credit Analyst

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.

Bank Credit Analyst

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.

Bank Credit Analyst

The end of the Debt Supercycle will be a key theme influencing economic and financial trends for many years to come. Its hallmark will remain the inability of central banks to engineer a new credit cycle, despite extremely low interest rates. China is one of the few remaining countries where the Debt Supercycle has yet to end, and history suggests the catalyst for a turning point will be a financial crisis.