South Korea
Highlights Unilateral economic sanctions show that geopolitical risks are rising in Asia Pacific; China is using sanctions to get its way with its neighbors; South Korea was the latest victim, and will be rewarded for its pro-China shift; Trump's Mar-a-Lago honeymoon with Xi Jinping is over…
Highlights Unilateral economic sanctions show that geopolitical risks are rising in Asia Pacific; China is using sanctions to get its way with its neighbors; South Korea was the latest victim, and will be rewarded for its pro-China shift; Trump's Mar-a-Lago honeymoon with Xi Jinping is over…
Dear Client, We hope that you will find value in this report, a product of collaboration between BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy and EM Equity Sector Strategy. My colleagues Oleg Babanov and Matt Gertken look for investment opportunities in the recent geopolitical changes on the Korean Peninsula.…
Highlights Reflation Trade: The backdrop for global growth and monetary liquidity remains positive, and suggests that risk assets will outperform government debt for the balance of 2017. However, there are some early signs of fading momentum which raises risks for financial markets in 2018. New…
Highlights U.S. fiscal stimulus will be priced back into markets; Northeast Asia is consumed with domestic politics for now; China's financial crackdown raises risks, but so far looks contained; South Korea's relief rally will lead to buyer's remorse; Japan's constitutional reforms portend…
Highlights The structural theme of overweighting technology stocks within the overall equity benchmark, and relative to other cyclical sectors such as commodities and machinery stocks, remains intact. However, in absolute terms, EM tech/semi share prices have become overbought and have already…
Highlights Chart 1European Policy Uncertainty Down
European Policy Uncertainty Down…
Highlights Ongoing monetary tightening in China poses a substantial threat to EM risk assets. Yet financial markets remain highly complacent. Mind the gap between EM risk assets and commodities currencies/various commodities prices. Business conditions in EM ex-China will diverge from the U.S…
Highlights China/EM growth will decouple (to the downside) from the business cycle in developed markets (DM). Continued demand strength in DM will not prevent a relapse in EM/China growth. EM is much more leveraged to China than to DM. Higher bond yields in DM, a stronger U.S. dollar and…
Highlights The latest saber-rattling signals a turn in U.S. policy; New negotiations, with tighter sanctions, will follow; The Iran playbook can work with North Korea ... ... But failure could mean war down the road. Feature The United States's "Pivot to Asia" was not a passing fancy, as…