According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now…
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the…
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high…
BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service does not expect a global recession next year. In practical terms, this means they are more bullish on their oil-price outlook for 2024 than the consensus and also differ…
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35…
As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a pessimistic message for the US economy. Half of the 12 districts reported slight declines in activity, two indicated that “conditions were flat to slightly down,” and the…
Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In…
The Baltic Dry index, which measures the average price paid for the transport of dry bulk materials across more than 20 shipping lanes, has rebounded 63% this month and 130% since the middle of the year. The latest leg of the…
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live…