US small-cap stocks have benefitted from the recent improvement in risk sentiment. The S&P 600 is up 10% over the past month – exceeding the S&P 500’s gains by 5.4 percentage points after having underperformed…
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in…
The November US CPI release came in broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday. On an annual basis, headline CPI inflation eased from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y while core inflation was unchanged at 4.0% y/y. On a monthly…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European equities near cycle highs are vulnerable to weaker earnings. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a double…
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep…
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point…
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the…
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4,…