Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
ADP Confirms Slowing Employment Growth…
US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks, while still retaining a modest equity underweight over a 12-month horizon.
(Probably) No US Recession…
Cooler US PPI Reinforces Case For September Rate Cut…
US Job Growth Stalls
US…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.
The US Consumer Hasn’t Buckled Yet…
The Nuances Of Fedspeak…
Philly Fed Weakness Reinforces Growth And Labor Risks…
FOMC Minutes Showed Broad Consensus To Hold Despite High-Profile Dissents…