Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86…
The flash PMI estimates from S&P Global delivered a mixed message about economic conditions across DM economies in October. The Eurozone composite index unexpectedly fell from 47.2 to a nearly three-year low of 46.5 on the…
This year's rally in US equities has for the most part been narrow in breadth. The 19.5% increase in the S&P 500's price index in the first seven months of the year exceeds the equal weighted index's 9.5% gain…
China's CSI 300 equity index fell below its March 2020 pandemic low on Monday, bringing its loss since the February 2021 peak to -40%. Similarly, BCA Research's market-based China growth indicator – a broader…
According to BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service, the global economy will stay buoyant over the next few quarters but will then sour as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and tighter bank lending…
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing…
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change…
US equities have somewhat stabilized since the beginning of October. After falling by 6.6% in the prior two months, the S&P 500 ended the day on Wednesday 0.6% above where it was at the end of September. Indeed, recent…
Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q –…
As expected, the New York Fed’s Empire State Survey sent a pessimistic signal about manufacturing conditions in October. The general business conditions index weakened from 1.9 to -4.6, albeit better than expectations of a…