With the 1-year CPI swap rate trading at 2.3%, the market was already priced for a significant drop in inflation heading into yesterday’s May CPI release. The results of the report should only reinforce those expectations…

  The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that…

  US equity market moves have recently shifted in favor of small caps. After underperforming the S&P 500 by 16% between the start of March and beginning of June, the S&P 600’s recent 6% gain is greater than its large-…

  Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sent a positive signal about short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage point to a two-year low of…

    According to the Exposure Index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), active risk managers are increasing their net exposure to equities. The range of responses to the weekly survey…

  Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The…

  On June 7th, the VIX closed just below 14, its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. The index has been on an unprecedented downtrend since March. In fact, the most recent 60-day change in the VIX is in the bottom 3% of…

  According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the leading indicators of inflation continue to point down, suggesting that the Fed may be able to finally go on hold after hiking one last time in July.…

  The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the…