Export dynamics from small open economies are a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Taiwan export orders accelerated from 4.8% y/y to a faster-than-anticipated 9.1% in August. The faster pace of growth was also broad…
The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Overall exports, which are highly volatile on a month-on-month basis,…
Industrial metals returned a whopping 6% over the past week. Bullish investor sentiment is likely driving these gains. The soft-landing narrative has been gaining traction in recent days with markets pricing in increased odds…
Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and…
The Chinese economic data in its totality was uninspiring in August. Industrial production and retail sales growth decelerated year-on-year and corroborate the message from August’s import and credit growth data that…
Volkswagen’s CEO has been making the point that the market for European carmakers has been deteriorating. Earlier last week, he went on to make a rather pointed reference at Chinese EV manufacturers. He was quoted…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through August. Outstanding loan growth decelerated from 8.7% y/y to 8.5%. Moreover, M1’s contraction deepened, from 6.6% to 7.…
The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.