Labor Market
消費者信頼感の低下と労働市場の勢いの衰えは、インフレ懸念が後退する中で長期デュレーションのポジションを支援します。6月のコンファレンスボード消費者信頼感指数は93.0と、期待値を下回る5ポイントの減少を示しました。現状の見方と期待値の両方がこの低下に寄与しました。また、職が豊富か得るのが難しいかを追跡する「労働差異」も悪化しました。
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欧州の中央銀行が緩和、デフレ圧力が広がる中
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米国小売懸念
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家庭のバランスシート、耐久財需要、関税の影響、DOGEが予算に与える影響、そして労働市場の冷却傾向に関する問題を迅速に見直した後、私たちは引き続き防御的な資産配分の推奨を強調します。
The US labor market appears balanced but at a pivotal point, with further weakness likely to prompt a shift to maximum defensiveness. After running the hottest since the 1960s, the labor market has gradually cooled. That rebalancing sparked a brief growth…
Provided that humanity can overcome the existential risks posed by AI, real incomes will rise. Although most workers will ultimately gain from the transition to an AI-dominated economy, the biggest winners will be those who control the land and the natural resources beneath it.
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…
Mixed signals from the NAB Business Survey reinforce our underweight in Australian government bonds and long AUD exposure. In May, business confidence rebounded slightly, rising to 2 from -1, but current conditions dipped to 0 from 2. Profitability continued…
Colder May CPI reinforces our overweight in government bonds and tactical steepener trades as growth slows and the Fed stays cautious. Headline inflation rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y), below expectations, as did core CPI (2.8% y/y). Goods inflation was flat, and…
While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.