Fixed Income
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC assessed the results…
Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.
1月のコンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数は予想を下回り、12月の上方修正された109.5から104.1に低下しました。低下は現在の状況と期待のサブコンポーネント双方によってもたらされました。求人が豊富だと答えた割合と見つけにくいと答えた割合の差である労働差もサイクル底付近まで低下しており、労働市場の緩みを示唆しています。 調査ベースの消費者および企業の信頼感指標は選挙直後に急騰しましたが、その後は冷めています。12月の小売売上高は 期待外れ…
Monday’s selloff was orderly and concentrated in the tech sector. The price action was a classic risk-off response, where both stock prices and bond yields decreased. While the VIX increased, the equity spot-vol beta, volatility’s sensitivity to spot price…
Despite the choppy price action of the last few weeks, equity sentiment remains elevated. Surveys of investor sentiment remain at the top end of the bullish spectrum, and the S&P 500 is trading over 22x forward earnings, levels only seen in the post-pandemic…
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration. Secretary Bessent is expected to implement…
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Inflation is not…
The January ZEW index for Germany missed estimates, with expectations falling to 10.3 from 15.7 in December. However, the euro area level index ticked up to 18 from 17 a month prior. Measures of current conditions also rose. The lack of momentum for Europe’s…
There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.