米国選挙

トランプ勝利の可能性が高まるにつれて、欧州アセットのパフォーマンスは米国アセットを下回っている。トランプ勝利が欧州株に与える即時の影響は何か？

特別レポート

最近、EMクレジット市場はEMエクイティや通貨、現地通貨建て債、コモディティ価格の売りをものともせずに推移している。このような乖離は異例だ。米国の堅調な成長とFRBの緩和だけでは、非常に低いEMクレジットスプレッドを正当化するには不十分だ。

トランプが有利かもしれないが、ハリスは現在過小評価されている。上院は共和党が握る可能性が非常に高く、ハリスが勝利しても政策は行き詰まるだろう。トランプが勝てば完全勝利となる。短期的にはボラティリティが高まるだろう。

特別レポート

Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for stocks in the short run.

A Donald Trump victory would send bond yields higher during the next few weeks, but yields will fall in 2025 no matter the election outcome.

As the odds of a Trump victory increase, there are indications that the “Trump trade” has commenced in global financial markets, with negative short-term implications for EM. In short, the US dollar will strengthen, and US bond yields will rise in the lead-up to and after the election if Trump wins. In response, EM countries’ currencies will depreciate, and their fixed-income and equity markets will suffer over the coming months.

The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.

The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, more surprises are coming before the final vote is cast.