市場収益

差し迫った金融および財政緩和と堅調な利益成長は、株式に対して前向きな見通しを支えています。しかし、短期的には重要なテールリスクが存在します。ポートフォリオのベータを下げることで、下方リスクへの保護を強化することをお勧めします。

In the front section of the chart pack, we review May’s performance and adjust our portfolio positioning.

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks to underperform over a multi-year horizon.

This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.