Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
メインコンテンツにスキップ
メインコンテンツにスキップ

中国元

人民元安に備えよ
我々は、北京がこれらの米国の貿易措置を単なる貿易紛争ではなく、もはや経済戦争の宣言と見なしていると考えている。米中対立はここからさらに激化する見込みだ。中国当局は人民元の大幅な下落を容認するだろう。CNHを米ドルに対してショートする。EMおよびアジア株式のポートフォリオについては、中国の投資可能株／オフショア株をニュートラルからアンダーウェイトに格下げする。
エマージング・マーケット・ストラテジー による Arthur Budaghyan
CNY Weakens As Trade Tensions Ratchet Up
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies and gold. USD/CNY…
Daily Insights による Felix Vezina-Poirier
Liberation Day And FX: US Isolationism

This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy による Chester Ntonifor
Geopolitics Month Ahead (Tariffs, Nukes, Two Sessions)

The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's China policy will cause volatility. Now that the stock market is cracking, reinitiate defensive trades, such as long treasuries versus US stocks and long global defensives versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy による Jesse Anak Kuri
China: Strong Seasonal Credit Not Enough To Exit Deflation
China’s January monetary and credit data was solid. New yuan loans increased by CNY 5.1 trillion, while aggregate financing was up by 7.1 trillion. M1 also increased after contracting 1.4% y/y in December. Seasonality plays a big role in China from…
Daily Insights による Felix Vezina-Poirier
China: No Turning Point In October
China’s October data for inflation and money disappointed. Headline CPI decelerated to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.4% in September, and PPI deflation worsened at -2.9% vs. -2.8% a month prior. While broad measures such as M2 accelerated, new loan growth has…
Daily Insights
The Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut And The RMB
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in anticipation of a global slowdown. The…
Daily Insights
China’s Surprise Rate Cut Unlikely To Move The Needle
The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to have any meaningful stimulative…
Daily Insights
The PBoC Will Resist a Swift RMB Devaluation
The Chinese currency has been under considerable depreciation pressure due to capital outflows. Additionally, the economy is grappling with debt deflation and a balance sheet recession, conditions that typically call for lower interest rates and a weaker…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240705_163756.PNG
Will China Devalue The Yuan Significantly?
特別レポート

Is the RMB cheap or expensive? Based on trade accounts, the yuan is inexpensive, but the RMB is vulnerable due to capital outflows. Yet, Beijing will not resort to a rapid devaluation for now, and the option of floating the currency is improbable. The PBoC will allow a gradual depreciation of the yuan versus the dollar, say around 5%, in the next six months.

Emerging Markets Strategy による Arthur Budaghyan

関連トピック

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging さらにトピックを見る