不平等

米国の中立金利は、反転のリスクがあるさまざまな要因によって下支えされている。これらにはAIの設備投資ブーム、大規模な財政赤字、そして極めて高い家計資産水準が含まれる。したがって、今後数年間で金利は下方に向けて予想外の動きをする可能性が高い。

11月はS&Pが6,000に到達しました！トランプ大統領は「レッド・スウィープ」を制し（私たちが一年を通じて予想していた通り）、米国で政権交代をもたらしました。当面はモメンタムを追う姿勢で臨みます。しかし、市場にとって最大のリスクは債券利回りであり、投資家がトランプ大統領の政策とそれが財政赤字に及ぼす影響を織り込み始めると、利回りは上昇するはずです。

いよいよ選挙当日が到来しました。いいえ、このメールに決定的な「銀の弾丸」とも言える予測は含まれていません。これは単に、誰が勝っても選挙が市場にどのような影響を与えるかについての当社の長期予測に過ぎません。

Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. A Republican single-party sweep offers huge tax cuts but also a global trade war. Recession looms regardless.

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

特別レポート

Modi and the BJP are at or near the peak of their political dominance, and their third term will be challenging as they must deal with harder reforms amidst a slowing domestic and global economic environment. In the long run, however, we remain constructive on India’s prospects, as its geopolitical and economic positioning are favorable and improving.

特別レポート

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.

In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.