ベトナム

ベトナム株のアルファ創出ポテンシャルについて、中期および長期的には強気の姿勢を維持しています。ただし、グローバルおよび新興市場（EM）のベータに対する悲観的な見通しのため、中期的にはこの市場に対して絶対的な観点で弱気としています。

投資家は今後数年間で中国からの製造業移転に伴うASEANおよびインド経済の活発な成長を当てにすべきではありません。

このチャートブックでは、先進国（DM）および新興国（EM）の各国の国際収支を検討します。米国の状況は良くありませんが、他のいくつかの国も同様です。

The Vietnamese economy is growing at a strong 7%. Why, then, are Vietnamese stocks struggling? Should investors expect a revival soon?

Commodity volatility will continue its rising trend since 2014. The US is on the brink of a major election, the outcome of which could reduce its willingness to engage with the outside world. So, states seeking to carve out their own spheres of influence are incentivized to raise the economic costs to the US and discourage its influence in their regions. These states can do this by interfering in key trading routes in their regions. As a result, geopolitical threats to maritime chokepoints are a structural as well as cyclical problem and will persist due to the revival of superpower competition.

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk.