Economy

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, while Japanese equities are a reversal candidate.

3 years ago

Essentials

Canadian Inflation: Slowing, But Not Enough To Calm The BoC

Canadian inflation slowed in May, slowing to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in April. This matched market expectations, with the monthly increase of 0.4% (versus 0.7% in April), slightly lower than the 0.5% consensus forecast. The year-over-year…

3 years ago

Essentials

Unwarranted Policy Tightening

In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields are falling, and the yield curve…

3 years ago

Essentials

The Reflation Indicator And The US Dollar

Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency, i.e., it sells off when global growth…

3 years ago

Essentials

Beware Russian Instability

Our Geopolitical Strategy service cautions investors of Russian instability, which will likely push up the global equity risk premium in the next few months. After some developments during the weekend, Vladimir Putin and his regime are still in power. Some…

3 years ago

China

Equities

Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

So Much For Détente?

Special Report

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Turkey: Time To Go In?

Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?

3 years ago

Essentials

Recession Delayed, But Not Denied

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator continues to warn about the economic outlook. The month-on-month rate of change and the six-month rate of change showed the index declining at a faster pace. Weaker consumer expectations for business…

3 years ago

Essentials

The BoE Returns To Outsized Rate Hikes

The Bank of England surprised markets with a larger-than-anticipated 50bps rate hike on Thursday, raising its policy rate to 5% versus expectations of 4.75%. Seven of the nine MPC members voted in favor of the rate increase. In particular, the rate hike is a…

3 years ago

Economy

Related Topics