Developed Countries

The wide WTI - Brent differentials at the front of these respective curves will continue to incentivize crude-oil exports from the U.S. to European refiners, who tend to favor the light-sweet crude coming out of LTO plays.

A number of factors triggered our downshift from a growth over value bent to a neutral style bias in late-January. Value has outperformed growth in 80% of broad equity bear markets since 1960, and in more than half of economic recessions. While neither outcome is assured, they have become much higher probabilities as credit conditions have tightened. Sector weightings also played a role, as growth indexes have nearly quadruple the tech sector exposure as value benchmarks, and more than double the consumer discretionary exposure. We are bearish on both sectors. The incentive to bet on growth stock outperformance from current premium valuation levels continues to diminish. Overall long-term S&P 500 earnings growth expectations have been pared back aggressively of late. Reduced confidence in the secular profit outlook is a headwind for overall valuations, but particularly for growth vs. value stocks. The chart shows that momentum in the G/V ratio closely follows trends in 5-year earnings growth expectations, and the current message is that the price ratio has hit a ceiling.

Cutting through the hype that will surround policy initiatives today, the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place. We explain why, and what it means for investors.

Special Report

This week's report is guest-authored by my colleague, Marko Papic, BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist. In a highly controversial piece, Marko argues that Donald Trump's strategy of focusing on the concerns of white working class voters may represent the GOP's best hope for winning this year's presidential election. As such, we expect the political debate to remain highly charged over the coming months, possibly to the detriment of risk assets.

Special Report

In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We discuss it in detail in this month's report, along with an update on our views of Brazil, Russia, and Turkey. In addition, we examine the potential casualties of the European immigration crisis and the likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the president of the United States.

In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We discuss it in detail in this month's report, along with an update on our views of Brazil, Russia, and Turkey. In addition, we examine the potential casualties of the European immigration crisis and the likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the president of the United States.

Small caps have enjoyed a modest oversold bounce relative to large caps, but the latest NFIB survey of the small business sector warns that these gains are likely to fully reverse, and more. The tightening in domestic monetary conditions appears to have begun taking a toll on both small business confidence, and access to funding. That is noteworthy, because history shows that small caps underperform large caps when credit tightens (top panel), given that the former rely more heavily on the banking sector for financing than do large caps. Meanwhile, optimism about the economy has tanked, perhaps reflecting the intensification in deflation pressures: the number of companies reporting price increases has plunged. While labor compensation also eased, suggesting increasing overall labor market slack, it was not enough to offset the loss of pricing power. Our small cap profit margin proxy continues to sink. We reiterate our large cap bias.

While high-beta equity areas have rebounded smartly in recent trading sessions, we remain skeptical that earnings-follow through will be forthcoming. Instead, our portfolio remains defensively-geared, where profit support is strongest. For instance, the latest manufacturing data showed that pharmaceutical shipments continue to boom, underscoring that top-line momentum has started on a strong foot in the first quarter. That bodes well for pharmaceutical relative performance. Elsewhere, beverage shipments have also soared on a growth rate basis, sending a similar upbeat message for the S&P soft drink index. Importantly, pricing power remains solid in both industries, underscoring that the surge in manufacturer shipments likely remains demand-driven. We reiterate our overweight position in both indexes.

Fed policymakers will soon shift their focus toward the strong employment and inflation data and stress that further rate hikes this year are likely. This will stem the rally in risk assets and cap the upside in long-dated yields.