Matt Gertken
Head of GeoMacroGeopolitics, US Politics, Policy
Matt Gertken helps investors understand how geopolitical and political developments impact markets and portfolio positioning. His work focuses on identifying risks and… Read More
Matt Gertken helps investors understand how geopolitical and political developments impact markets and portfolio positioning. His work focuses on identifying risks and opportunities from policy shifts, elections, and global power dynamics and translating them into clear investment implications.
Matt leads the firm’s geopolitical and US political coverage. He develops scenario-based frameworks to assess risk and probability and advises clients on how to navigate major turning points.
Before joining BCA in 2015, Matt was a Senior Analyst at Stratfor and held roles in research and publishing. He has nearly two decades of experience in geopolitical analysis and is a frequent commentator in global media.
Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin. He is author of Swift's Grand Strategy (forthcoming, Cambridge University Press). Read Less
Matt leads the firm’s geopolitical and US political coverage. He develops scenario-based frameworks to assess risk and probability and advises clients on how to navigate major turning points.
Before joining BCA in 2015, Matt was a Senior Analyst at Stratfor and held roles in research and publishing. He has nearly two decades of experience in geopolitical analysis and is a frequent commentator in global media.
Matt holds an MPhil from the University of Cambridge and a PhD from the University of Texas at Austin. He is author of Swift's Grand Strategy (forthcoming, Cambridge University Press). Read Less
Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing! How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029! Will the US escalate the war...
14 Oct 2026, 10:30 EDT, 15:30 BST
We still think Democrats will sweep the midterms. But what do opinion polls and betting markets say? President Trump will veto any market-hostile policies from a Democratic Congress. How would different midterm scenarios affect US policy options?...
05 Oct 2026
Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war. How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
01 Sep 2026
Matt and Roukaya covered the geopolitical backdrop into US election season, the US-China tariff truce, and the mid-August US-Iran ceasefire deadline. They also discussed oil and commodity prices, whether gold is a buy, and the trends ahead for...
29 Jul 2026
Mathieu and Matt discussed: The US-Iran deal and next steps in trying to resume global commodity flows. The impact of energy prices on global demand, inflation, and interest rates so far. Different scenarios for commodity prices and economic impacts...
23 Jun 2026
Matt, Roukaya and Robert discussed how the US and Iran may continue negotiations even as they exchange military strikes, how a ceasefire through June and July could only partially restart shipping and, at best, delay inventory drawdowns in oil...
02 Jun 2026
Chief Strategist Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim, Jesse Kuri discussed: Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to expand their trade truce, as both face challenges, not least in the Strait of Hormuz.But China is not yet willing to apply pressure on...
22 May 2026
Chief Strategists Marko Papic, Matt Gertken and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed: President Trump heads to China this week for critical talks with Xi Jinping that will focus on the war in Iran and global stability. If the US cannot offer significant...
14 May 2026
Midterm elections occur every four years and thus constitute a normal risk, not significant uncertainty.
13 May 2026