Here, There, And Everywhere Report - August 2025

This is the first time that our chartpack does not include any charts on the trade war. Did we just curse our equity overweight? Right as the inflation print comes out and causes agita to the market? Sure, maybe. The tactical ins and outs are not that interesting to us. Far more interesting is the fact that the Fed is going to have to cut regardless of what "widget inflation" does. With no more fiscal backstop fueling the economy via wanton transfer payments to households, the inflation-fiscal gravy train is over. As such, the Fed will cut more than the market thinks, particularly given the political pressure from the Trump White House.