FICC | Commodities

While the post-GFC linkage between oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations evident in the 5-year/5-year (5y5y) CPI swaps market will continue to be debated for years to come, this is an empirical fact that will affect monetary policy and the evolution of FX and real interest rates over the medium term.

Lower oil prices are aggravating financial and social stress in poorer OPEC states, particularly in Venezuela, where the government recently executed a gold-for-cash swap ahead of looming debt payments.

The wide WTI - Brent differentials at the front of these respective curves will continue to incentivize crude-oil exports from the U.S. to European refiners, who tend to favor the light-sweet crude coming out of LTO plays.

A stunning 9.9 million-barrel build in U.S. oil inventories this week failed to arrest the upward climb in prices.

The remarkable admission by OPEC's secretary-general, Salem el-Badri, earlier this week that with "any increase in (oil's) price, shale will come immediately and cover any reduction" in output only hints at the larger impact of light-tight-oil (LTO) going forward.

While the oil market looked right through the Russian-Saudi production-freeze announcement earlier this week, we believe these states may be attempting to put lipstick on the proverbial pig, to provide a plausible narrative to explain the physical reality of lower oil production in a sub-$30/bbl world.

Special Report

Rebalancing in the oil market later this year will arrest the negative feed-back loop driving markets' inflation, interest-rate and FX expectations, particularly for non-OPEC oil-exporting countries.

Oil markets will continue to be buffeted by Russian overtures to OPEC suggesting a desire to orchestrate a production cut-back, while uncertainty over the Fed's next move keeps markets on edge.

The Fed will upset the rebalancing of oil markets if it misreads the current sell-off as weakness in oil demand.