FICC | Bonds

Special Report

In this Special Report, we present our updated Central Bank Monitors for the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. We have improved the methodology used to calculate the monitors to make them more dynamic to structural changes over time. The main message from the Monitors is consistent across all five countries. The pressure to hike rates is diminishing, suggesting that the end of tightening cycles is approaching, but it is still too soon to expect rate cuts.

The recent uncertainty regarding the health of the banking systems in the US and Europe is not having any material impact on overall financial conditions or economic sentiment. The aggressive rate cut expectations, especially in the US, are unlikely to be realized. Although the macro growth and policy backdrop remains unfriendly for corporate debt on both sides of the Atlantic.

The Fed lifted rates 25 bps yesterday while also signaling that the tightening cycle is near its peak. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

Special Report

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.

Our fixed income strategists recommend positioning for a bear-flattening of the US Treasury curve.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.

Special Report

This report considers the outlook for the US corporate credit cycle based on a suite of economic, monetary and corporate health indicators. We conclude that both the default rate and US corporate bond spreads will grind higher during the next 6-12 months.

Special Report

In this Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Fixed Income Strategy teams argue that as the lagged impact of higher interest rates hits the Canadian economy, what will initially appear as a potential hard landing will morph into a mild slowdown. During the process, Canadian government bonds will outperform, and the CAD will drop, setting the stage for a coiled-spring rebound.

This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a prolonged period.