FICC | Bonds

Special Report

We investigate the recent increase in unemployment with the goal of determining whether it is flagging an imminent US recession.

Special Report

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI print and the bond market’s reaction.

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.

This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.