CoreMacro

There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle in India is less vulnerable compared to other EMs. However, the outlook for Indian equities in absolute terms is not bullish.

The RMB has moderated considerably since mid-last year, which should lead to improved capacity utilization and easing PPI deflation. There is a strengthening case for an upswing in China's profit cycle, driven by falling interest rates and a weaker RMB, while investors are ill-prepared for any positive earnings surprises.

The rally in risk assets could persist. Dollar and oil moves are not yet exhausted. But valuations and poor earnings quality warrant a cautious approach.

For the month of March, the model outperformed both global and U.S. equities in U.S. dollar terms. For April, the model has further pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into cash. While Europe remains the largest equity overweight, there was a modest recalibration to defensive markets such as the U.S. and Switzerland. The allocation to EM was also nudged up a bit, on momentum and valuation grounds. In the fixed-income space, the model is sticking with U.S., Italian and Spanish paper.

Informe especial

There is little evidence suggesting that declining productivity growth in recent years has resulted from measurement error. Businesses have plucked many of the low-hanging fruits made possible by the IT revolution, while cyclical factors stemming from the Great Recession have also weighed on productivity. Low productivity growth tends to be deflationary in the short run, but inflationary longer-term. For now, this is good news for bonds, but is likely to become bad news by decade-end.

Informe especial

Headline and aggregate-economy statistics such as GDP and income are no longer representative statistics for the living standards of the vast majority of the population. This Special Report discusses the implications for politics, economics and investment.

A global comparison suggests that China's capacity utilization does not appear particularly weak compared to other countries. The excess capacity problem is not unique to China, and therefore cannot be explained by China's investment-driven growth model. Chinese stocks have been unduly punished by the "overcapacity" stigma, which is unwarranted and will eventually correct.

Informe especial

Within the EM equity space, country effects still significantly overwhelm sector impact. In turn, the importance of country selection within advanced countries has dropped. Macro analysis is still very pertinent with respect to adding alpha when investing in EM stocks. At this moment, the macro outlook does not warrant a bullish stance on EM.

There are no indicators that consistently lead share prices or can differentiate cyclical bull markets from short-term oversold rebounds. Investors who are right on the big-picture view will be rewarded, and vice versa. From a big-picture perspective, our bias remains that EM/China growth will not pick up sustainably, and that EM EPS will not recover materially in the next 12 months. Therefore, we recommend fading this rally.

The Fed's decision to scale back intended interest rate hikes reflects economic reality.