Insights

Recessions are inevitable but unpredictable. While earnings drive long‑term equity performance through the cycle, around turning points fundamentals follow a predictable sequence: multiples contract first, then prices, then earnings. Recessions can shift sector leadership, but simulations show that ...

Fears of widespread job losses due to AI are overstated. For investors, the key is that white-collar anxiety is accelerating a red-hot blue-collar economy via lower yields. Upgrade Private Real Estate to overweight....

The Section 122 tariffs under the US Trade Act of 1974 are more favorable to Europe; the trade-weighted tariff rate falls to 10.45%, from 11.74% pre-ruling. This positive development does not change our overall views on Europe, as we expected lower tariffs ahead of the US midterms. ...

The turmoil in private credit is a wild card, but our traditional suite of credit cycle indicators does not point to an imminent spread-widening episode. We reiterate our benchmark weightings on Treasuries, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds....

The fog of war is the thickest at the dawn of kinetic action. However, BCA’s GeoMacro Strategy has trade recommendations to manage and thus we send this missive despite the significant uncertainty. ...

MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold....

Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long USD/CHF to capture the rate differential and receding policy uncertainty. ...

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle economic powers across hard and soft power dimensions and recommends investing in their defense and...

In Section II, Jesse ranks middle economic powers across hard and soft power dimensions and recommends investing in their defense and industrial sectors....

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment....