Insights

The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend....

Leadership has rotated toward investment-driven sectors, reflected in both EPS growth and price performance. Expanding margins suggest the cycle may have longer to run, as productivity gains start to work their way through fundamentals. We continue to see upside for the S&P 500, with no change t...

So far, there is no evidence of second-round effects from the oil price shock showing up in the US economy. Fed rate hikes are off the table unless those effects emerge....

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Even if the Strait were to open tomorrow, global consumers will be squeezed for the rest of the year. However, AI capex is accelerating, and signs of ROI are emerging. This capex boom will keep the world from an economic downturn. Upgrade equities to overweight a...

This Special Report argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point....

In Section I, Doug compares projected S&P 500 earnings and current capex to past cycles at the same stage of their expansions while also exploring the K-shaped bifurcation in business investment. In Section II, Mathieu argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on t...

MacroQuant recommends an underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, remains neutral on gold, upgrades copper to neutral, and is very bullish on oil....

The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely....

Global trade has held up despite US non-AI import volumes contracting by 25% over the past 12 months. The strength in global trade has concentrated in two areas: (1) imports of AI-related hardware and (2) developing countries’ imports, especially from China. Will these continue?...

FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair....