Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?...
Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology....
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries....
China has become less reliant on exports to advanced economies, and its products have successfully penetrated developing economies. Exports to the US make up 3% of Chinese GDP, while exports to all developing economies account for 10% of its GDP. China’s trade pivot from advanced to developing econo...
In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will...
Private Equity Secondaries have grown but so have their opportunities. Near-term opportunities will be fertile while underlying trends will sustain the asset class in the long-term. Private Equity investors should be greedy....
Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take advantage of US division and distraction....
The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable....
Oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war. Concerns about the demand outlook are acting as a price ceiling while the risk of a geopolitically induced supply shock is providing a floor. Prices are likely to remain rangebound over the near term. Yet the path of least resistance over a 6-to-12-month horizo...
