As an industrial metal, copper acts as a barometer of economic activity. Silver and gold are safe-haven assets with inflation-hedging properties, though silver is relatively more sensitive to global growth developments given that industrial applications account for roughly half of silver demand. The...
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that...
By triggering a renewed surge in the yen, and a disorderly unwinding of the AI bubble, more aggressive rate cutting would guarantee the very recession that the Fed is trying to stave off. This means that underweight short-term US rates or T-bonds combined with underweight US tech is a winning positi...
Both the Chinese and US central banks will likely take policy actions in the coming weeks. What is the potential impact of a mortgage rate cut on China’s household consumption and the broader economy? Will the anticipated Fed easing cycle further lift the RMB exchange rate versus the US dollar?...
The undercurrents of global financial markets signal deteriorating global growth conditions. There is little cash on the sidelines in the US, the Euro Area, and Japan. If the budding bear market resembles the 2000-2003 one, EM stock prices are unlikely to outperform global equities in the initial le...
The economy is not in a recession, and the Fed is not behind the curve. A 50 bp rate cut at the September meeting is unlikely, but 25 bp is certain. However, economic growth is slowing, and a recession at the end of the year is still the most likely outcome. The S&P 500 earnings are projected to gro...
Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?...
