Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Israel: An Upside Risk To Oil
Another Netanyahu-led government would raise the risk of Israeli escalation and a major oil supply shock, while an opposition victory would reduce, but not eliminate, this risk due to its greater coor…
Have We Seen Le Peak Yet In French Yields?
France’s fiscal mess is far from over, but the bond vigilantes may have gotten ahead of themselves. We book profits on short OATs, eyeing another opportunity in early 2027 as election risks resurface.…
The Brazilian Roulette: Fasten Your Seat Belts
Brazil’s elections have turned into a game of roulette for investors. Bulls and bears were each wrong-footed between the first and second rounds of elections. We are downgrading Brazilian equities, lo…
October Surprise – More War
Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful,…
Democrats Will Take The Senate
Democrats will win both houses in the midterm, but beyond near-term volatility, none of the outcomes pose a major market risk. The vote is more important as a signal of an anti-business turn in US pol…
What If Gina Wins?
Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of…
