Foreign Exchange & Currency Outlook
Translate macro divergence, policy shifts, and valuation into actionable views across foreign exchange and global currencies.
GBP Chartpack: Carry Cushion Masks Structural Cracks
GBP offers attractive carry today, but the market’s aggressive rate hike pricing is likely to turn into a headwind within 12 months. Our latest Currency Chartpack examines the valuation, growth, rate,…
Canada: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Markets expect the BoC to hike by 100 bps over the next year; we do not. Housing and labor weakness argue for owning Canadian bonds now, while Carney’s reforms and a resource capex wave make the CAD a…
EM Domestic Bonds: Turbulence Before An Opportunity
EM local bonds face near-term turbulence from rising inflation, global risk aversion, and currency weakness. Use the sell-off to build exposure: medium- and longer-term fundamentals remain favorable.
G10 FX Scorecard: Riding The Carry Wave
Our G10 FX cyclical scorecard still favors high-carry currencies over low yielders, suggesting patience should continue to pay. We break down the factors driving each currency and highlight the most a…
FICC Q4 Strategy Outlook: Climbing The Wall Of Worry
Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long r…
The Dollar's Last Hurrah: Upgrading Our DXY Target To 105
Global capex is driving the strongest industrial cycle since 2021. The US is best positioned to capture the gains and to weather near-term risks, supporting widening real-rate differentials and favori…
