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Money/Credit/Debt

Essentials
China: A Government Bailout?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China's recently introduced debt swap program will help prevent mushrooming defaults, but it will not lead to an acceleration in growth. In August, the Ministry of Finance permitted 12 heavily…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Bridging The Fiscal Gap

We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but the impact on growth will be very limited.

Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
2 years ago
China
Essentials
Structural Bear Market For European Bonds
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half of the year, which will force the ECB…
2 years ago
Essentials
New Data From The Survey Of Consumer Finances
The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution of household wealth and income. According…
2 years ago
Essentials
Has The ECB Reached The Pinnacle?
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
China: Not Out Of The Woods

China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar.

Qingyun Xu
2 years ago
China
Essentials
Restrictive Policy Weighs On Eurozone Credit Sector
Results of the ECB's Q3 Bank Lending Survey indicate that the impact of tight monetary policy is weighing down on lending conditions and loan demand in the Euro Area. In terms of credit standards, the survey results reveal that the broad-based tightening…
2 years ago
Essentials
What The US Banks See
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses. Nothing in the banks’ commentary suggested that…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Eurozone: Recession Postponed, Not Cancelled

Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
The Big Bank Beige Book, October 2023

The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing around the banking system, though consumption has clearly slowed. We reiterate our view that a recession is coming, but not before the year is out.

Doug Peta
2 years ago

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