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BCA Indicators/Model

GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/2023 Review & Outlook: Positioning For Peak Interest Rates

In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q2/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio return exactly matched that of the benchmark index during the quarter, as modest gains on government bond allocations in the US, UK and core Europe completely offset losses on spread product underweights. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product and above-benchmark duration tilts in the US and core Europe.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Finding Quality At A Reasonable Price
The Equity Analyzer Platform uses a 30-factor model called the BCA Score to help our clients build robust portfolios. Multi-factor models are constructed to avoid the common pitfalls of focusing on one factor dimension, such as value. Often value stocks are…
Daily Insights
BOJ: Pressure To Tighten?
The Japanese yen slid by 2.1% vis-à-vis the US dollar last week, reversing the prior week’s rally. This latest bout of weakness comes on the back of speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep policy unchanged at its Friday meeting. On the one hand, both…
Daily Insights
Three Scenarios In Which The US Can Avoid A Recession

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Leading Indicators Still Warn Of Recession
Investors have become increasingly more optimistic about the economic outlook. BoA’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows the share of investors surveyed expecting the global economy to experience a soft landing over the next 12 months rose to 68% in July. That…
Daily Insights
US Speculative-Grade Corporate Bonds: Spreads Should Be Wider
US speculative-grade corporate bond (junk) spreads rose significantly last year in response to a sharp increase in US interest rates and widespread concerns about a US recession. Junk spreads have since come in from their mid-2022 peak, and now trade below…
Daily Insights
On Improving US Homebuilder Confidence
Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said, homebuilders pared back some optimism…
Daily Insights
Betting On A Less Hawkish BoC
Canada’s CPI release showed headline CPI inflation cooled from 3.4% y/y to 2.8% in June – below estimates calling for a less pronounced moderation to 3.0% y/y. This marks inflation’s first return to the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% percent inflation target range…
Daily Insights
The Euro And Global Growth
After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s monetary tightening campaign remains more…
Daily Insights
Deciphering The Signal From Singapore’s NODX
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…
Daily Insights

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