Latest from BCA Research

Both hawks and doves at the Federal Reserve, including Chair Yellen, have stepped up efforts to condition financial markets for a rate hike as early as June.

Special Report

Long-term fundamentals are often poor predictors of the outlook for currencies over the subsequent 12 months. For shorter time horizons, investors should focus on the medium- and short-term currency determinates introduced in this Special Report.

The BoC will continue to watch from the sidelines. Our short-term model shows that the Canadian dollar is modestly cheap after having reached technically overbought levels earlier this month.

Special Report

While it is impossible to time the stock market, even a system whose results are slightly better than a coin-flip can still generate significant alpha. Overweight equities when valuations are favorable, growth is advancing, and financial conditions are easing. Stocks tend to do best when sentiment is bearish but improving, and the market has started trending higher without yet going parabolic. The outlook for U.S. stocks is rather mixed; Europe, Japan and China should outperform (currency-hedged).

For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.

Against a backdrop of continuing supply destruction, particularly in the U.S., and a pick-up in crude demand, markets will remain in balance this quarter and go into a deficit in 2016H2.

Special Report

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a December 2016 WTI $50/$55 call spread for a 106.3% gain.