Latest from BCA Research
The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.
Risks to global growth remain to the downside. Selling pressure in cyclical markets and assets will escalate. EM currencies will make new lows versus the U.S. dollar, the euro and yen. Take profits on our long JPY/short KRW and long JPY/short SGD trades. Short KRW versus an equal-weighted basket of the U.S. dollar, yen and euro. Continue underweighting Peruvian equities.
Chinese housing construction does not look excessive relative to the size of its rapidly growing urban population. On average, China's new urban construction has been about 500 units per 1000 new urban citizens in the past 10 years, roughly comparable to other countries, and is much smaller than Korea and Japan during the prime stage of their urbanization process.
Fed hawkishness reinforces the need for an imminent profit recovery to justify current valuations. Our Indicators do not signal such an outcome. Stay defensive, and return to an underweight stance in the industrials sector.
A June rate hike is a real possibility, but the Fed still needs evidence that growth is rebounding toward 2% in order to follow through. Whether the next rate hike occurs in June or later this year, a persistent hawkish shift from the Fed will send Treasury yields higher during the next few months.